Wednesday, September 11, 2013

Fantasy Football Running Backs: 2013 Early Returns

Week one brought bad news for the owners of several trendy pre-season fantasy rushers, namely: David Wilson, Montee Ball, Giovani Bernard, and Stevan Ridley. All four were drafted with high expectations and all four disappointed in their first chance at game action in 2013.

Wilson's severe fumbilitis saw him benched early and he never found the field again. The Giants, playing mostly from behind, leaned heavily on Eli Manning and a passing attack led by Victor Cruz and Brandon Myers. Tom Coughlin keeps his rushers on a notoriously short leash when it comes to holding on to the football, and I wouldn't be surprised to see the Giants add a free agent to help with ball-carrying duties until Andre Brown returns from a broken leg. The names we've all heard are Willis McGahee, Joe McKnight, and Brandon Jacobs. Between the three, I think McGahee is the most interesting. He is a proven back who can produce and probably still has enough left in the tank to help your fantasy team. I think if the Giants don't make a roster move this week, however, they're going to give Wilson another chance. So we should know soon how this situation will play out.

Montee Ball, however, is a different case. Ball saw the field and was relatively productive, but he remains part of a backfield that is all-too-crowded for fantasy goodness. Knowshon Moreno saw the most snaps and, in my opinion, continues to be the Denver back you want, at least in the short term.

Giovani Bernard actually had the best week, the only problem was he simply didn't receive enough touches. When he carried the ball, he performed well, averaging upwards of 5 YPC. I think the Bengals will look to get him more involved as the season progresses, and of the entire above list, he is the most interesting player to me.

Ridley did his best David Wilson impression and quickly lost his gig to Shane Vereen. Fortunately for Ridley owners, Vereen injured his wrist and will need surgery. While Brandon Boldin remains in the mix, I would be surprised if the Patriots don't give Ridley at least one more chance based on his strong 2012 campaign. When Vereen returns, however, all bets are off. If I was using Ridley as an RB2 or, in some deeper leagues, an RB1, I would be seriously concerned.

These four situations all warrant keeping an eye on moving forward, and week two should provide us more insight as to the fantasy value of each. I would consider Bernard and Wilson both good Buy-Low candidates, but in the case of Ridley and Ball, if you own them, you're probably stuck with them for the time being.

Sunday, September 8, 2013

Chicago Bears: Enter the Trestman

The Chicago Bears knocked off the Cincinnati Bengals to win their 2013 opener at home 24-21.

And it was all because of Marc Trestman.

There, I said it.

How can I make such a sweeping claim so boldly and with such absolute certainty? Sunday's week one victory, to me, boils down to three key factors:

1) The emergence of Jake Long and Jordan Mills at right Guard/Tackle, respectively, and the decision to start them.

2) Clock management at the end of the first half.

3) Trusting the offense to make plays instead of trusting the defense to save the game.

Taking each case one at a time, let's compare the new regime to the Lovie Smith Bears.

1) Long and Mills

 Lovie's predilection against starting rookies was well-documented, as was his lack of ability to effectively evaluate and draft offensive talent; it was simply never "his thing." Let's be honest: if Lovie were still here, would Long even be playing? Would he even be on the team? I suspect instead we'd still see J'Marcus Webb under contract. That Phil Emery was able to find what appear to be, for all intents and purposes, two starter-quality offensive linemen in the same draft is truly impressive. But perhaps even more so is the coaching staff's ability to develop both Jake Long and Jordan Mills as rapidly and with as much success as they have had thus far in the young season. Their contribution is immediately apparent: in the key fourth-quarter fourth-and-inches call, Trestman and offensive coordinator Aaron Kromer called a run... to the right... with the game on the line... behind two rookies... and it worked.

It's hard to believe, but that fourth-and-short trust with the game on the line wasn't even the most impressive contribution from Long and Mills. No, the most telling stat is this: Zero. Sacks. The Bengals have one of the best defensive lines in football - the front four alone were responsible for 43 of the team's 51 sacks in 2012. Today? A couple of rookies, an aging center, and two first-year free agents blanked them. Cutler wasn't sacked once. In four years under Lovie, Cutler was sacked an average of 2.64 times per game. So far under Trestman? A clean slate.

2) Clock Management

Look, I'm not a Lovie hater. I actually liked him. He won. It wasn't pretty. Sometimes, it was downright grotesque. But he was a winner. Still, even the staunchest Lovie lovers wouldn't argue: he was terrible at managing the clock in key moments... on both sides of the ball.

Enter Marc Trestman. With 37 seconds left until half and down by a score, WWLD? (What would Lovie do?) I'll tell you what Lovie would do: he'd take a damn knee. Over and over again, he'd take a damn knee instead of running a play or two.

Instead, Trestman pressed and found a way. The Bears pulled closer on a 58-yard Robbie Gould record-setting field goal to enter halftime down four instead of seven.

Oh, by the way, what was their ultimate margin of victory? Tell me that final score, again?

3) In O We Trust

Close game. Late. Fourth and 1. Down four. Inside field goal range. WWLD? He'd kick the field goal and trust his defense to get a stop. What would Trestman do? He'd let Forte get him the couple inches on the aforementioned right-side run. He'd trust his playmaker to make a play.

The very next snap? Jay Cutler to Brandon Marshall. 19 yards. Touchdown.

And the rest, as they say, is history.





Monday, December 3, 2012

Hypothetical 2013 RB/WR Rankings

Hypothetical 2013 Fantasy Football Draft Rankings - RB and WR

Why not? Per a conversation with a close friend over the weekend, I thought it might be interesting to take a look at next year's top-10 by position for the two major flex-eligible categories: RB and WR.

Running Back
1. Arian Foster
2. Doug Martin
3. Adrian Peterson
4. Trent Richardson
5. CJ Spiller
6. Ray Rice
7. Marshawn Lynch
8. Alfred Morris
9. Jamaal Charles
10. Frank Gore

Notes:
-Ray Rice falls because, simply, he hasn't been the same player in 2012. More importantly, despite a few clutch runs (or catch+runs) in the past couple weeks, the Ravens just refuse to lean on him more heavily.
-CJ Spiller is an interesting name, and even more so if Fred Jackson leaves town.
-Alfred Morris assumes job security in Washington, which has been the case thus far in 2012. I can't see why it wouldn't continue as long as he continues to perform.
-If Bryce Brown gets a starting gig ANYWHERE, he immediately moves into the top 10, probably after Richardson at number 4.
-Doug Martin is explosive and gets a ton of touches. Greg Schiano uses him a lot like the aforementioned Rice at Rutgers. Kinda fun to watch.

Wide Receiver
1. AJ Green
2. Calvin Johnson
3. Brandon Marshall
4. Demaryius Thomas
5. Percy Harvin
6. Dez Bryant
7. Julio Jones
8. Andre Johnson
9. Wes Welker
10. Hakeem Nicks

Notes:
-I had a very difficult time at number 10. Vincent Jackson? Cecil Shorts?(!) Victor Cruz? All viable options. If Nicks finishes 2012 strong(er than Cruz?) then I think he's the number 10 headed into next season. Obviously, this is entirely speculative and offseason considerations (where does Greg Jennings land?) could have their say. Not to mention, I am still curious to see how Pierre Garcon completes his season, too.
-Dez Bryant might even belong somewhere in the top-5 based entirely on potential.
-Many Julio Jones owners would describe his 2012 as "disappointing", but he is still easily inside the top-10 in scoring for the season (standard-scoring leagues).


Wednesday, November 14, 2012

Mid-Week Leanings

Some of my Fantasy Football Lineup Decisions I face this week, and where I'm leaning as of Wednesday.

1) FLEX, Standard Scoring: Cecil Shorts, Dwayne Bowe, Donald Brown, Vick Ballard
I'd really like to play an Indy running back if I had any idea one of them would get the majority of the touches. With no such clarity forthcoming, I'm currently ruling out both. Shorts has a rough matchup against a very strong Texans unit, so Bowe, despite having a balky thigh, seems the obvious choice, here.

2) FLEX, PPR: Mike Wallace, Jeremy Maclin, Antonio Gates
Mike Wallace was a weekly starter for me, but the injury to Ben Roethlisberger will likely lead to Wallace finding a spot on my bench this week. Maclin, meanwhile, showed a nice early rapport with Nick Foles and has a cushy matchup with the Redskins. For all the Broncos-love I just extolled, they certainly can't guard the tight-end, giving up a league-worst 11.7 ppg to the position in standard scoring. Still, I'm leaning toward Maclin, who has greater home-run potential. My other starter WR's are Eric Decker and Reggie Wayne.

3) WR, Standard Scoring: Titus Young, Danario Alexander, Jeremy Kerley
I know. Yuck, right? Well, Pierre Garcon never did a thing, Hakeem Nicks and Kenny Britt are on a bye, and, well, it's a 12-team league. At the moment, I'm playing Young and Alexander. Young goes up against a Green Bay defense who is bottom-10 against WRs in fantasy scoring, while I simply don't trust Mark Sanchez to get the ball to Kerley.

Monday, November 12, 2012

The Scariest Team in the NFL

I woke up this morning after watching the Houston-Chicago game a bit depressed. My Bears lost at their own game, namely: the turnover battle. In slippery "Bear-weather" (quoted for absurdity), it was Chicago, not the visiting Texans, who couldn't hold onto the football.

But this game did answer a few questions, most notably among them being this: neither of these teams are that scary. The Texans have a mauler offensive line and arguably the best running back in football, but their offense is very one-dimensional. I don't see the Texans keeping up with other teams in a shootout. I just don't. Their defense was just good enough and benefited from some very sloppy Bears ball security and another Jay Cutler concussion.

So, if not the Texans and if not the Bears (and their terrific defense), who is it? Who is the team that no one wants to play right now? Who is the best scariest team in the NFL? The Giants looked very November-y last week, the 49ers couldn't even put away a divisional opponent they have recently dominated in the Rams, and the Packers have certainly seemed vulnerable at times but also are dealing with injuries to key players on both sides of the ball.

No, it's not the bruising 49ers. It's not the Aaron Rodgers show. It's not the one-dimensional Texans or the Bears, with all of their question marks. It's not the under-performing Giants or the off-and-on Ravens.

None of the above.

The scariest team in the NFL right now, the team that nobody wants to face by a wide margin, is the Denver Broncos. That's right. With the recent acquisition of Trindon Holliday, who has scored two return TDs in the past two weeks, the Broncos are now clicking in all three phases of the game. Peyton Manning is playing at an MVP level and has really brought out the talent in Eric Decker and Demaryius Thomas. Defensively, the Broncos have also been amazing, ranking in the top-10 in all four major categories: points against, total yards against, pass yards against, and rush yards against. Remember all those years of the Peyton Colts? Everyone always wondered what it would be like if those Indianapolis teams had a defense to back up Manning. Now, we get to see that. Admittedly, it's not the Peyton of his prime, but nonetheless he is still clearly capable of playing at a high level. This may be the best overall team that Peyton has ever been a part of, and in a league with no clear favorites in either conference, the Broncos are certainly making the case to become one.

And even if their not a favorite team just yet, they remain the scariest.


Sunday, November 11, 2012

Week 10 Fantasy Lineup Choices

Each week, I plan to examine my lineup choices in my three most competitive leagues. I will explain my rationale for the selection and then review them independently after the week has concluded to see where I can improve.

League 1: PPR Experts League (fantasyknuckleheads.com) 
With Darren Sproles hand injury, my lineup decision became much easier. I'm using Mike Wallace in the Flex over Jeremy Maclin and Antonio Gates, while starting Eric Decker and Reggie Wayne, who already netted me 17 points.

League 2: 12-team .25 PPR
I used Vick Ballard over Jamaal Charles at RB2 due to matchup and already regret the choice. I think the logic was wise, but Andrew Luck vultured the rushing TDs. In my remaining decisions I am going with:
1) Vernon Davis over Dustin Keller at tight end. This seems like a no-brainer, but Davis has been unproductive of late due to opposing defenses scheming for him, among other problems. I think the 49ers figures out how to get him involved over the bye and Saint Louis has been bad against the tight end thus far, giving up over 60 yards/game.
2) Reggie Wayne and Marques Colston over Dwayne Bowe at WR. Wayne already put up a solid performance, and I like Colston in a likely shootout. Kansas City has been awful this season, and while I do think they could be throwing a lot from behind, I'm not taking the gamble.
3) Jamaal Charles over Dwayne Bowe at Flex. I may change this decision before Monday night, but as of now I'm going with Charles' talent to win out, despite his frustrating usage. This is my most difficult decision of the week.

League 3: 12-team standard scoring
Pick Three for 2 WR spots and a flex: Hakeem Nicks, Kenny Britt, Jeremy Kerley, Titus Young, Brandon Myers. That's more or less my decision. My wide receivers have underperformed all season, with Pierre Garcon my desired WR2 suffering an early foot injury and never really making it back.
Perhaps foolishly, I'm sticking with Nicks. He and the Giants HAVE to turn things around after last week's disaster against Pittsburgh... at least I hope so.
I'm also using Britt. Miami is to be beaten through the air, and the return of Jake Locker is likely a boon to Britt's value.
That leaves a choice between Kerley, Young, and Myers for my final Flex spot. At the moment, I'm sticking with Kerley, but I'm not sold on the choice. He seems to have become the Jets de facto number one receiver, but the matchup is terrible. Young doesn't have a much better matchup, with the Vikings only allowing 1.4 more points per game to receivers. Moreover, Young has been battling an injury all week. I think Myers is an interesting gamble in a game where the Raiders will have to throw, but I'm using the receiver with higher upside.

Saturday, November 10, 2012

How I'd Run the Lakers

How I'd Run The Lakers
also: NBA Exec of the Year

The race is over. There is no need to vote. Sports writers everywhere can save the ink or blank stares at a computer screen. The box has been checked for them: GM of the Year, 2012-2013, Mitch Kupchak.

Executive of the Year: executive vice president of player personnel Jim Buss.

It doesn't take balls to fire your head coach five games into the season, it takes brains. Anyone with a lone eyeball could tell that Mike Brown was a terrible fit for the Lakers. I, for one, am surprised he was ever hired in the first place. LA is simply the wrong town for Brown, who couldn't even effectively handle the spotlight Lebron carried with him to Cleveland before he famously took his size power athleticism talents to South Beach. But, handling the stars and the spotlight is one thing... and a hard to quantify "thing" at that. Brown's failure was a basketball one, both in scheme and rotation. Many analysts, commentators, and other professionals have said as much, but I will take it a step further. I won't just critique Mike Brown, I'll offer suggestions as to what I'd have done differently.

I'll admit, when I first considered developing an offensive game plan for the Lakers, I thought it would be simple. In the frontcourt, you've got the league's best "true" center paired with one of the greatest finesse big men of all time. In the backcourt, you have one of the greatest scorers of all time paired with Mr. Floor General, Steve Nash. Simple. Just give one of them the basketball and watch it work.

Then I thought about actually diagramming a play. Where does Dwight go so he doesn't eat up the lane for Kobe or Nash? What about Kobe? How does he do without the ball in his hands? And Gasol? How do he and Dwight share post looks? Does Pau just become a rich man's Bill Wennington?

The problem became a tangled mess in my mind... and I hadn't even recalled the need to include Metta World Peace.

Let's call it a moment of clarity, but then it came to me simply. Here's your base offense for the 2012-2013 Lakers, Phil, or Mike, or whatever coach Jim and Mitch bring in... you're welcome.

Nash Brings the ball up and tries to find Gasol on the left block. Howard is at the right top of the key with Kobe at the right hash and Metta World Peace in the far corner. The first option is Gasol on the left block. If it isn't there, or we want a different look, Nash runs a high pick and roll with Howard at the top of the key while Kobe drifts more right. As Howard sets the pick, Gasol moves out to the left hash. As Nash drives off the screen, Metta World Peace waits in the corner or cuts baseline. If nothing is there, Nash maintains possession and resets or kicks it out to Kobe.

The same set can be run with 1) Kobe on the left block, Gasol/Howard at high post, Metta World Peace at right Hash, Gasol/Howard in right corner. 2) Howard on block, Gasol at high post, Kobe in corner, Metta World Peace at Hash. It's versatile, it uses the strengths of the players involved, and can be run with an entirely different look by the second unit with Ebanks and shooters. It's mind-numbingly simple and obvious.

Yeah, I know, it's one damn play. Then again, so is the triangle system, essentially. So is the pick and roll, so is any iso.

Why couldn't Mike Brown figure this out? Why did he insist on using the Princeton offense with big, athletic super-stars?

That's why he deserved the firing. And he should forfeit the $11 million he's owed to save face.

Now, on to Exec of the Year...

All Mitch Kupchak did this offseason was bring in a (sorely needed) (hall of fame) point guard and the league's most irreplacable (big man) (player) center. He moved an injur(ed)y-prone Andrew Bynum to make way for Howard. Those two moves alone were enough to win him the award, but when you add on his ability and willingness to let go of an obvious square peg in a round hole and then (perhaps) convince the great Zen Master himself to return like the NBA is some bad kung fu movie, you have an absolute master performance.

In some very overlooked moves, Kupchak also brought in Antawn Jamison to provide more veteran bench leadership and made, in my opinion, a very underrated draft choice that no one is talking about when he picked up Robert Sacre. Sacre is raw but huge and played well enough to make the Lakers 15-man regular season roster (instead of being relegated to the D-League). He needs to develop and may never do so, but what greater mentors than Howard and Gasol?

My hat is off to you, Mitch, and my playbook is open to all. Until D-Rose finishes up with #thereturn I think I need to find a yellow no. 24 jersey.